Notes on probabilistic thinking and systematic trading.
A trading journal is not optional.
I guess you’ve never blown up while “responding flexibly”?
Digging into more trading strategies alone won't bring you successful trades...
You bought another insurance policy today, though.
But is it really free?
The expected value is the same. So what changes?
Two large numbers: the trades I will repeat, and the market participants that dwarf me. How a single drop of water creates one direction amid the waves.
A 0.01% failure rate means something completely different at 500 units versus 100,000. The probability doesn't change; the number of repetitions does.
The one thing that matters most in trading. Even what already happened is one of many possible outcomes that was realized, not destiny.